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| Forum Home > Winter Wx Discussion > Winter coming early this year?! | ||
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Site Owner Posts: 18 |
The latest model runs have been baffling with the GFS and ECMWF wanting to bring the southern plains our first significant intrusion of cold Canadian air of the early fall season. Take a look at this current 18z dgex model run valid 18z(1pm CDT) Sunday afternoon the 11th of October. It's INSANITY!
Notice the 540 line? the blue line is the 534 line... basically you read these by looking at the last two digits and that gives you the temperature. Therefore this model is telling us that highs could be in the 30's on Sunday!!! The models have all picked up on this and are in fair agreement that a pretty good dump of canadian air will occur along and east of the Rockies. This would translate into highs WELL BELOW seasonal norms and the increasing potential of our first widespread frost/freeze. Remember in an early blog I was saying how we could see our first freeze in as little as 2 weeks... this thinking may just be correct! We'll watch it for you as always. Now I want to know what YOU guys think... could this be mother nature's signal of an early arrival to Winter? Or is it too good to be true? We'll let you make the call and see who's right. Any commentary is appreciated;) ~Zack | |
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Posts: 13 |
also one thing that i wanted to add was with this cold air intrusion its possible that some wintry precipitation is included like this mornings 12z gfs run
this would be almost in total agreement with Zacks post with the dgex- however if there was wintry precipitation it wouldn't be that much but something nice to look at it- as always we'll keep an eye out on it | |
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-- You heard 'bout the legend of Jesse James, an' John Henry just to mention some names.Well there's a storm chasin' legend in the south today.A man called Donny, from Atwater, Cee-A. Every storm chaser knows his name.They swear he got ice blood runin' in his veins.A foot like lead, and nerves like steel. Well his truck jack-knifed, turned completly round,he was coming down backwards 'bout the speed of sound.Alot of folks seen him, and they all say he had his head out the window yelling, "Clear the way!"Well he got to the bottom, safe and sound, and everybody asked Donny how he made it down. He said folks when the tornado picked up too much speed I just runned along beside it and drug my feet.
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Moderator Posts: 8 | Guys I will have to agree with you. I've been thinking along these lines for quite a while. Give me 2 or 3 days to watch some stuff up there and I can tell you whether we are all right or not. As of this moment it does seem like the cold air is building up there at a pretty fast pace but it will have to keep its current pace up to get that '34 line all the way to you guys in Okla City area. I'm thinking its almost a guarantee for Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas at this point but like I said I'd give it a couple of days of observation before I put a dead guarantee on it just yet. Now, as for the early arrival of winter, I'm going to go out on another limb and say that I would consider thinking about November 23-26 as the official start of winter 2009-10 by classification of meteorological events and things that classify the early parts of winter. That's a full month ahead of the calendar winter! Will we have our fair share of interesting and possibly wintry weather before then? Its extremely possible and I cannot wait!!! I go out on a lot of limbs these days but I'll stand on them til they break this year because I know that a hard and exciting winter is coming!!!!!! | |
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-- Of all the ways God chooses to display his power, very few are as awesome as the weather in Oklahoma!!
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Posts: 13 |
you summed it up well Clint- and looking at the 12z gfs it has next tuesday and wednesday with lows in the upper 20s-low 30s as far south as central Lousiana!!!! and if this is a sign of things to come for winter-i say bring it as long as theres snow to bring with it which i expect!!!! | |
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-- You heard 'bout the legend of Jesse James, an' John Henry just to mention some names.Well there's a storm chasin' legend in the south today.A man called Donny, from Atwater, Cee-A. Every storm chaser knows his name.They swear he got ice blood runin' in his veins.A foot like lead, and nerves like steel. Well his truck jack-knifed, turned completly round,he was coming down backwards 'bout the speed of sound.Alot of folks seen him, and they all say he had his head out the window yelling, "Clear the way!"Well he got to the bottom, safe and sound, and everybody asked Donny how he made it down. He said folks when the tornado picked up too much speed I just runned along beside it and drug my feet.
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Site Owner Posts: 18 |
I'll be posting an official winter 09-10 analysis later this week... it will highlight what's expected this winter. The GFS has really had me baffled lately. If it's to be believed, we are TRULY in for it this Winter. | |
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Site Owner Posts: 18 |
I thought I'd post that yesterday OKC broke a 100 YEAR OLD record for the coldest maximum high temperature for the 9th. The previous record was 52 back in 1908 and we smashed it with 51. This ought to say something, and with another strong cold front coming in today it appears that winter is TRULY starting early this year. | |
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Moderator Posts: 8 | I just wanted to add that this month could very well average out to be one of the coldest Octobers in many many years, possibly top 10 or even top 5 all time. It will be awesome to add up the stats when this month is over. I hope the models prove to be right in what you and I think. I'd like to see flakes flying around quite a bit this year! | |
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-- Of all the ways God chooses to display his power, very few are as awesome as the weather in Oklahoma!!
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Posts: 13 |
ya it's going to be a dousy of a winter i'll tell you that much!!! | |
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-- You heard 'bout the legend of Jesse James, an' John Henry just to mention some names.Well there's a storm chasin' legend in the south today.A man called Donny, from Atwater, Cee-A. Every storm chaser knows his name.They swear he got ice blood runin' in his veins.A foot like lead, and nerves like steel. Well his truck jack-knifed, turned completly round,he was coming down backwards 'bout the speed of sound.Alot of folks seen him, and they all say he had his head out the window yelling, "Clear the way!"Well he got to the bottom, safe and sound, and everybody asked Donny how he made it down. He said folks when the tornado picked up too much speed I just runned along beside it and drug my feet.
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