Over the past several days we were anticipating the possibility of a severe weather outbreak- models were showing sufficienct cape and more the sufficient shear to support organized widespread severe weather. However as the event drew near models starting to go all over the place as to who had the highest instability and started to show less shear, also I believe it was the gfs that showed the front being more progressive. As such while we where keeping an eye on it still blogging about it because it was still a threat. September 30th- the nam and gfs re-orgnanized themselves and we became more concerned. Septemeber 30th pm hours- the ruc model and nam skew-t showed a moderate- strongly unstable atmoshere over central Oklahoma with cape values >2000 j/kg and ehi (energy helicity index- combines cape and helicity and is a tool used for forecasting tornadoes- you only need a value of 1 to worry about tornadoes) values close 5 between 5 and 9 in the morning on October 1st. Also- the models where showing a warm front in northeast Texas that was going to be moving northward during the overnight hours and have it into central Missouri at 10 am- if this held true a significant severe weather outbreak was imminant. October 1st 6 am. The warm front that was supposed to lift to the north never did- it stalled across sw Arkansas, the cold front stalled as soon is went by Oklahoma City. Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing as we antipated in nw Arkansas, sw Missouri and ne Oklahoma and judging by trends on the radar it seemed as if the rain was comming to an end- and it was-also some clearing was talking place and by 1 pm a severe thunderstorm watch was issued however the front still stalled -and the first severe warning came out at 2:20 pm (basically when the front got more umph) but storms had trouble building to to less instability. Now as that was going on low clouds were still hanging on in Arkansas and were since 7 in the morning- dispite that temperatures had still reached the low to mid 70s due to strong south winds dispite the front being stalled. In southwestern Arkansas closer to the front the skies were not as cloudy and the air became moderatly unstable and as such a severe thunderstorm watch was issued for southwest Arkansas including the Little Rock metro i beleive it was around 6pm. Scatterd showers and thunderstorms were starting to blossem in southwestern Arkansas and a couple storms became severe with penny sized hail and winds 60 mph being the main threat- some rotation was noted in 2 thunderstorms last night- one was in Miller County with a tornado warning issued- with trees down and also in Dallas County- no reports on damage. Of particular note is one of the severe reports in Texas- 85 mph thunderstorm related winds in Johnson county and 80 mph winds in Williamson county and none of these areas were in a slight risk. All the same yesterday had 29 reports of wind damage and 15 reports of large hail. It could have been worse......a lot worse.