Signs of the changes into fall always make me wonder what the winter season ahead will bring.  Late fall and winter are usually one of my favorite times of year, as i am a cold weather person. So, naturally i just cannot help but wonder if this will be one of the snowy years here in Oklahoma. We really havent seen winter's strength here in northeastern Oklahoma in the form of just plain old long lasting snow or real extreme fridgid cold in a few years. we've had super destructive ice storms for 2 years running but for heaven's sake i want a good 6 inch snow at least once this year or early next year that stays on the ground a week or so and freezes us out over here in the east!!! My question, does anyone actually think this will be a snowy winter season for a change? let me know what you guys think. Also, how cold is that air mass supposed to be that is about 2 weeks out? I lost my links to the correct model page to look myself or i wouldnt be asking. Is it going to give us potential for some early fall record lows? Thanks guys. I'm going to try to get myself more envolved here again very soon. I'M JUST READY FOR A REAL BIG WINTER FOR A CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This summer has been VERY interesting to say the least. This summer was cooler than normal with the country as a whole experiencing temperatures on average 0.6 degrees below normal. It doesn't sound like much but it is actually a fairly significant number. Here in Oklahoma July & especially August were cooler than normal with July state temperatures averaging 0.9 degrees below normal and August averaging 1.5 degrees below normal. September so far has been on average 2.3 degrees below normal respectively due to all the cloud cover and rain we have been enduring. That's another thing, precipitation has been well above normal in many areas of Oklahoma which has ultimately eliminated all drought areas in the state. Texas recently has seen some much needed rainfall in regions that have been enduring their worst drought in over 50 years. They dropped from D-5 to D-3 in many areas which is a major short term improvement. Many locations recieved anywhere from 1 and 12" inches of rain.

There is a weak El Nino out in the Pacific with SSTs averaging 0.5-1.5 degrees above normal. El NIno is expected to strengthen to at least moderate category by the winter months but a strong episode while not likely is certainly possible. These conditions we have been experiencing the past few months have ironically been of El Nino nature and expecting El NIno to continue to impact our region even more profoundly by the fall and winter months. El Nino is also proven evident by the lack of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year given unusually high volumes of vertical wind shear which effectively blows the tops of growing thunderstorms away. This is very typical of El NIno.

Here is a link provided by the NWS in Norman, OK discussing El Nino's impacts on Oklahoma during the winter months. It proves to be fairly interesting. In layman's terms, El Nino's "typically" bring cooler and wetter conditions to the state during the winter and Colder then normal + Wetter than normal = a good chance of having an interesting winter.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/elnino.php

Also here is the link to one of the model sites I look at in deciphering the weather here in the states.

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/

(advanced weather personel only... lol, actually it's pretty straightforward and in my opinion easy to read.)

You should also check out our winter outlook for the country this year. It may just bring your hopes up even higher.

Clint Crittenden at 03:35AM on Sep 18, 2009

Signs of the changes into fall always make me wonder what the winter season ahead will bring.  Late fall and winter are usually one of my favorite times of year, as i am a cold weather person. So, naturally i just cannot help but wonder if this will be one of the snowy years here in Oklahoma. We really havent seen winter's strength here in northeastern Oklahoma in the form of just plain old long lasting snow or real extreme fridgid cold in a few years. we've had super destructive ice storms for 2 years running but for heaven's sake i want a good 6 inch snow at least once this year or early next year that stays on the ground a week or so and freezes us out over here in the east!!! My question, does anyone actually think this will be a snowy winter season for a change? let me know what you guys think. Also, how cold is that air mass supposed to be that is about 2 weeks out? I lost my links to the correct model page to look myself or i wouldnt be asking. Is it going to give us potential for some early fall record lows? Thanks guys. I'm going to try to get myself more envolved here again very soon. I'M JUST READY FOR A REAL BIG WINTER FOR A CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am with you on this one!! I have been waiting for a good snow for years now and is it really so much to ask? Just one good snow and then we'll be happy! And can we make that happen on Christmas too please?! lol! I think that if we can take any early indicators from our fall weather so far, it is that we will have a cold and wet winter! Let's keep our fingers crossed!

unfortunantly c clint that our good ol gfs model can only go out right now till the 14th but i can tell it's showing soem very interesting weather to say the least!!! only bad thing about predicting that far out is the tendency for the models to change left and right and really no other model to compare it to- maximum i would go out to is 168 because then you cna compare the gfs to the dgex model to the european model

I'm pleased to see a great discussion going! Keep em' coming! Anyway, below are the averages from the last three months here in OKC. The results are interesting.

July -                            NORM: 93     09 AVG: 93      DEPARTURE: 0.

August -                        NORM: 92     09 AVG: 89.2   DEPARTURE: -2.6.

September(so far) -        NORM: 84     09 AVG: 79.4   DEPARTURE: -4.3.

I took the averages myself. Notice how much below average OKC has been so far this month? I did these averages Saturday so I need to update the September one but overall you get my drift. Precipitation has also been relatively above average as well. These coniditons suggest that El Nino is indeed influencing our weather and I expect the trend to continue. El Nino can also be blamed for the lack of tropical cyclone's in the Atlantic given the increased amounts of vertical wind shear in which effectively blow the tops of growing thunderstorms away.

At this time I'm predicting a moderate strength El Nino as we head into the Winter months, there are some indications that El Nino may peak during this fall and fade during the Winter but this is just a solution that has been discerned for now. Current SST anomalies are fluctuating some but +1.0 SSTs continue across much of the Equilateral Pacific... continueing to imply that El Nino IS present. The overall affects on Oklahoma this Winter will be generally wet and cooler than normal conditions. So far this has held true!

Below is an interesting compilation that explains El Nino and it's impacts on Oklahoma's weather below:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/elnino.php

Later today I will be posting an analysis blog discussing last month's very cool and wet weather. However I wanted to let you know just how cool it was for Oklahoma City last month. So the average or climatolagical high for the month of September is usually around 84 degrees. The 2009 September average averaged around 79.3 degrees which has resulted in a departure of -4.7 degrees! That's almost 5 degrees below normal for the month of Septmber making it the 4th coolest month on record! Total accumulative precipitation for last month was around 4.5"+ which is well above normal. I'll have more later along with what you can expect as we head deeper into October. Could there be a freeze here in OKC as early as in 2 weeks? Find out soon!