Despite the fact that TD 2 has weakened below tropical depression status given a relatively unfavorable environment, the latest tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa is an eye catcher. This one has a high probability of becoming the Atlantic's first tropical cyclone and named cyclone of the season.

Above is a forecast intensity chart, compiling all the data from notable models. While the models differ in the intensity, they all agree that invest 90L will become a tropical storm and potentially a hurricane even... a strong one at that.

The models are all developing this wave into a tropical cyclone and directing it WNW towards the carribbean by the middle of next week. It COULD make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast by the end of August, and it may be a major hurricane. Now, this is all based on current trends and data. This storm hasn't even developed into a depression yet and a lot can change between now and the end of August. However, persons, including mets, should keep a close eye on this one.... something big is certainly brewing in the Atlantic.

For more information you can check out the National Hurricane Center's(NHC) webpage at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Or for more advanced weather nuts you can make your own predictions/forecasts by following the hurricane models here:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Time for YOUR thoughts! - what do you think personally of this invest? Could it be the Atlantic's not only first named storm, but hurricane as well? Input is welcome.

Today tropical storms Ana and Bill have formed in the Atlantic and are a potential threat to the United States. Ana has and continues to be perturbed by dry air from the SAL(Saharan Air Layer) which has overall limited convective activity and once more exposed her center circulation. She still remains a low end tropical storm with winds of at least 40mph and a minimal central pressure of 1005. SST's are slowly becoming more conductive for sustaining Ana and wind shear should remain on the low-moderate side for the next few days(around 5-10knots). The latest path takes Ana very near the Leeward islands of the lesser Antillies and the governments of the islands have issued tropical storm watches for the immediate coasts. Model data suggests that Ana my have periods of ups and downs in intensity, remaining at tropical storm strength by the time she reaches the Antillies. She may then shoot into the Gulf where rapid intensification may take place... all models suggest a minimal hurricane Ana by this time.

Of much greater potential and/or concern would be Tropical Storm Bill which has by the latest outlook gained its TS status. Bill has a very well formed and well organized central circulation with heavy thunderstorm activity wrapping around primarily it's western and southern periphery. However convection has been ultimately developing all around the center and should continue to do so, remaining relatively unaffected by the SAL thanks to Ana. However moderate amounts of wind shear near and over the storm is retarding rapid intensification. Over the next few days, wind shear is expected to drop to around 5-10knots along with overall warmer SSTs. The latest path on Bill takes him west and then northwest towards Florida and possibly the mid Atlantic states by the end of the month. He may be a major hurricane by this time according to the models and bears heavy watching by the mets.

Another area of disturbed weather is occuring near the Florida Straights associated with a trough of low pressure lifting northwest from the Bahamas. A frontal boundary stalled over the Gulf may help concentrate thunderstorm activity with this trough of low pressure and there is a small chance that this system could gain some tropical characteristcs overtime. We'll keep you posted.

We have been keeping the blog fresh with updates the past several days on the tropics so feel free to check it out here. Also remember that you are welcome to share your input/analysis on what to expect from these systems. Will they affect the U.S.? Time will tell.