April 21, 2016 2:59PM
If you follow any weather personnel on social media or watch the local news, you are probably well aware by now that Tuesday is supposed to be the end of the world if you live in central Oklahoma. Must be another spring storm season in Oklahoma!
In all seriousness, yes next week APPEARS that it could get a little hairy around these parts.
The SPC has highlighted days 6-8 for severe weather potential with Tuesday, the way it's looking now, posing the highest risk(pictured above). It's not very often that the SPC delineates severe risks in the 6-8 day range so you would have to have a fair amount of confidence in order to put out headlines. With the new scale implemented, a 15% would represent your standard(slight) risk for severe storms while a 30% is reserved for the potential for significant severe storms(enhanced or higher). At the very least if this were a forecast for tomorrow, a moderate risk(level 4/5) would most likely be issued for the orange highlighted area.
It's also important to note(especially considering that you are likely to see many different graphics portraying different risk levels in the coming days) that the SPC risk areas are not necessarily based on the severity of a storm but rather probability and coverage. You can get tornadoes in a marginal risk area in the same way you could in a high risk.
I also want to point out that this graphic is subject to change several times leading up to Tuesday. I wouldn't fixate on any specific forecasts being thrown out this far in advance. It's just not a wise thing to do.
In any case next week is shaping up to be an active one with both the Euro and GFS advertising a stout negatively tilted trough digging into the southern plains by early next week. The increasing amounts of directional shear and moisture/instability will lead to the possibility of severe weather likely peaking on Tuesday. The risk for strong/severe storms will develop as early as Sunday with an initial short wave passing through. Another trough is forecast to impact the area by next Thursday with more severe weather a possibility. In fact, the overall pattern closing out the month and heading into May looks to become increasingly favorable for severe weather across the central and southern plains. If you haven't already now would be a good time to review those severe weather safety plans and clean out the storm shelters. Know where to go when the weather gets bad and keep up to date with the latest forecasts. I will continue to provide updates in the coming days and get more detailed when allowed.